The Two Kinds of Moderate

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There are two clear ways to become a politically moderate person: intentionally and accidentally. Intentional moderates are trimmers who deliberately choose a middle position between the extremes of right and left. Accidental moderates decide their own views on each question and end up in the middle by averaging that the far right and far left are almost equally wrong.

Intentional and accidental moderates can be distinguished by the distribution of their opinions. If the far left opinion on a certain issue is 0 and the far right opinion is 100, intentional moderates will have opinions close to 50 on every question.

Intentional moderates are similar to far left and far right people in that their views are not really their own in a sense. The hallmark of an ideologue, whether left or right, is acquiring a large number of opinions. They cannot choose for themselves. Opinions on tax policy can be predicted from opinions on sex. Also, intentional moderates may seem the opposite of ideologues, but their beliefs (or "positions," which may be a more accurate term in their case) are also acquired en masse. If the median opinion shifts left or right, intentional moderates must shift with it or they will cease to be moderate.

Accidental moderates, on the other hand, not only choose their own answers, but also choose their own questions. They may have no interest in questions that they consider both right and left to be extremely important. That is, the political nature of accidental moderates can only be measured from the intersection of the issues they care about and the issues that concern left and right, which can sometimes be surprisingly small.

"If you're not with us, you're against us" is not just an operational rhetorical trick, but often simply a falsehood.

Moderates are sometimes dubbed cowards, particularly by far-left individuals. This is because they are attacked from both the right and left, and have no reassurance of being validated as part of a larger group.

The most impressive individuals I have known have largely stumbled into moderation. If you know many professional athletes or celebrities, you might have a different view. Being far left or far right has nothing to do with how fast you can run or how well you sing. But if you generate ideas and work for a living, you can't get by without an independent streak.

More accurately, you must have an independent streak to deal with the ideas you handle. You can be a brilliant mathematician and indifferent to politics. In the 20th century, some very smart people were Marxists, but no one smart was a Marxist on the themes that relate to Marxism. But if the ideas you work with intersect with contemporary politics, you have two options. You can stumble into moderation or you can become mediocre.

The stumble-into-moderate individual answers each question on his own reasoning and comes out almost equally anti-right and anti-left, so he finds himself at the middle by default.

Deliberate moderates may be recognized by the distribution of their opinions. If the far-left position is 0 and the far-right is 100, the deliberate moderate has opinions closer to 50 on every issue.

Deliberate moderates are similar in one important respect to left- and right-wing ideologues. The hallmark of ideology is to have your opinions handed to you in bulk. You can't choose for yourself. An opinion about tax policy predicts another about sex. And the beliefs (or stances, to be more accurate in the case of moderates) of deliberate moderates are bulk acquired too. If the median opinion shifts to the right or left, deliberate moderation must shift with it or it becomes immoderate.

On the other hand, the accidental moderates not only choose their own answers but also choose their own questions. They may have no interest in questions that are considered extremely important by both the left and the right. In other words, the political nature of accidental moderates can only be measured at the intersection of the issues they care about and the issues that concern both the left and right, which can sometimes be surprisingly small.

"If you're not with us, you're against us" is not just an operational rhetorical trick, it's often just plain wrong.

Moderates are sometimes ridiculed as cowards, especially by far-leftists. This is because they are attacked from both the right and the left, and they have no sense of security as a member of a large orthodox group.

The most impressive people I know are almost all accidental moderates. It might be different if you knew a lot of professional athletes or entertainers. Whether you're fast or good at singing has nothing to do with whether you're far left or far right. But if you're in the business of generating ideas, independence is necessary for success.

More accurately, you have to have independence about the ideas you handle. You can be an excellent mathematician without being politically inclined. In the 20th century, very intelligent people were Marxists, but there were no smart people on the subject of Marxist themes. However, if the ideology you use in your work intersects with the politics of that time, you have two choices: become an accidental moderate or become mediocre.